A Simple SFC Model (ODE Form)

Three-Sector Stock-Flow Consistent Model with Differential Equations

Authors
Affiliations

Yannis Dafermos

University of the West of England

Maria Nikolaidi

University of Greenwich

Published

August 1, 2019

Brief Description

This is a simple SFC model that consists of three sectors: firms, households, and banks. This version presents the model using differential equations suitable for implementation in CircuitJS1.

  • Firms undertake investment by using retained profits and loans
  • A part of firms’ profits is distributed to households
  • Households accumulate savings in the form of deposits
  • Banks provide firm loans by creating deposits
  • Banks’ profits are distributed to households

In the model, loans are endogenously created when firms receive credit from banks. The model is calibrated using data for the US economy over the period 1960-2010.

Balance Sheet Matrix

Households Firms Commercial banks Total
Deposits +D -D 0
Loans -L +L 0
Capital +K +K
Total (net worth) +D +VF 0 +K

Key insight: Every financial asset has a corresponding liability. Banks have zero net worth.

Transactions Flow Matrix

Households Firms Banks Total
Current Capital Current Capital
Consumption -C +C 0
Investment +I -I 0
Wages +W -W 0
Firms’ profits +DP -TP +RP 0
Banks’ profits +BP -BP 0
Interest on deposits +intD·D -intD·D 0
Interest on loans -intL·L +intL·L 0
Change in deposits -dD/dt +dD/dt 0
Change in loans +dL/dt -dL/dt 0
Total 0 0 0 0 0 0

Flow Definitions

Income Flows

  • Wages: Households ← Firms \[W = s_W \cdot Y\]

  • Consumption: Households → Firms \[C = c_1 \cdot W + c_2 \cdot Y_C + c_3 \cdot D\]

  • Investment: Internal to Firms (financed by retained profits + loans) \[I = g_K \cdot K\]

Profit Flows

  • Total Profits: Firms generate \[TP = Y - W - int_L \cdot L\]

  • Retained Profits: Kept by Firms \[RP = s_F \cdot TP\]

  • Distributed Profits: Firms → Households \[DP = TP - RP\]

Interest Flows

  • Interest on Loans: Firms → Banks \[Int_L = int_L \cdot L\]

  • Interest on Deposits: Banks → Households \[Int_D = int_D \cdot D\]

Bank Profits

  • Bank Profits: Banks → Households \[BP = Int_L - Int_D = int_L \cdot L - int_D \cdot D\]

Capital Income

  • Household Capital Income: \[Y_C = DP + BP + Int_D\]

Differential Equations (Stock Dynamics)

The stock variables evolve according to these differential equations:

Household Deposits

\[\frac{dD}{dt} = W + Y_C - C\]

Expanding: \[\frac{dD}{dt} = W + DP + BP + int_D \cdot D - C\]

Firm Loans

\[\frac{dL}{dt} = I - RP\]

Firms borrow the difference between investment and retained profits.

Capital Stock

\[\frac{dK}{dt} = I\]

Capital accumulates through investment.

Firm Net Worth

\[\frac{dV_F}{dt} = RP - int_L \cdot L + \frac{dK}{dt} - \frac{dL}{dt}\]

Simplifying: \[\frac{dV_F}{dt} = TP - DP = RP\]

Complete System of Equations

Parameters

Symbol Description Value
sW Wage share of output 0.60
c1 Propensity to consume from wages 0.90
c2 Propensity to consume from capital income 0.75
c3 Propensity to consume from deposits 0.47
gK Investment rate (growth of capital) 0.03
sF Retention rate of profits 0.18
intL Interest rate on loans 0.05
intD Interest rate on deposits 0.02

Algebraic Equations (Flows)

\[Y = C + I\]

\[W = s_W \cdot Y\]

\[C = c_1 \cdot W + c_2 \cdot Y_C + c_3 \cdot D\]

\[I = g_K \cdot K\]

\[TP = Y - W - int_L \cdot L\]

\[RP = s_F \cdot TP\]

\[DP = TP - RP\]

\[BP = int_L \cdot L - int_D \cdot D\]

\[Y_C = DP + BP + int_D \cdot D\]

Differential Equations (Stocks)

\[\frac{dD}{dt} = W + DP + BP + int_D \cdot D - C\]

\[\frac{dL}{dt} = I - RP\]

\[\frac{dK}{dt} = I\]

Redundant Equation (Consistency Check)

\[D = L\]

This identity confirms stock-flow consistency: all deposits are backed by loans.

CircuitJS1 Implementation

This model can be implemented in CircuitJS1 using:

  1. Godley Tables: For tracking balance sheets of each sector
  2. ODE Elements: For integrating the stock dynamics
  3. Arithmetic Elements: For computing flows from stocks

Stock Variables (use ODE/Integrator elements)

  • D - Household deposits
  • L - Firm loans
  • K - Capital stock

Flow Computations (use arithmetic elements)

Connect the differential equations using multipliers, adders, and the stock values.

Model Dynamics

Steady State

At steady state, all growth rates are equal: \[g_Y = g_K = g_D = g_L = g\]

The steady-state leverage ratio: \[\frac{L}{K} = \frac{g_K}{s_F \cdot (1 - s_W) - int_L \cdot (L/K)}\]

Stability Analysis

The model exhibits stable dynamics when:

  • Consumption propensities ensure positive saving
  • Investment doesn’t exceed available financing
  • Interest rates don’t cause explosive debt dynamics

Key Insights

Endogenous Money Creation

\[\frac{dL}{dt} = \frac{dD}{dt}\]

When banks extend loans, they simultaneously create deposits. This is the essence of endogenous money.

Stock-Flow Consistency

Every flow has a source and destination:

  • Horizontal: Financial assets = Financial liabilities
  • Vertical: All income is spent or saved
  • Quadruple entry: Each transaction affects 4 cells in the matrices

Profit Distribution

Firm profits flow to: 1. Retained profits (RP) → Internal financing for investment 2. Distributed profits (DP) → Household income

Bank profits flow entirely to households (as bank owners).

References

  • Godley, W. & Lavoie, M. (2007) Monetary Economics: An Integrated Approach
  • Caverzasi, E. & Godin, A. (2015) “Post-Keynesian stock-flow-consistent modelling: a survey”
  • Nikiforos, M. & Zezza, G. (2017) “Stock-flow Consistent Macroeconomic Models: A Survey”

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